Jaishankar will visit Moscow for the first time since the Ukraine war to meet Manturov and Lavrov

Amid rumours that India will mediate between Russia and Ukraine, EAM Jaishankar is in Moscow.

S. Jaishankar, the minister of external affairs (EAM), will meet with Denis Manturov, the deputy prime minister of Russia, and Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister of Russia, on Tuesday in Moscow. This will be Jaishankar’s first trip to Russia since the start of the conflict in Ukraine.

At a time when bilateral trade between India and Russia is said to have tripled and Indian imports of Russian oil have increased more than 20 times in the last year, Dr. Jaishankar’s meeting with Mr. Manturov, who is also the Minister for Trade and Industry, will be centred on strengthening bilateral economic cooperation.

The Russian Foreign Ministry released a statement on Dr. Jaishankar’s visit, over which he will hold talks on the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, and Technological Cooperation. “The talks [between EAM Jaishankar and his counterparts] will focus on the trade and investments, transport and logistics, the use of national currencies in mutual settlements, as well as promising projects in the energy sector, especially in the Arctic shelf and the Russian Far East,” the statement read.

Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabia and Iraq as India’s top oil supplier, according to the most recent statistics for October. From 43,400 barrels per day (bpd), or barely 0.2% of all exports last year, to 9,35,556 bpd, or around 22% of total shipments this year’s total intake. The Central Banks of India and Russia have also been in discussions over the past few months about creating the Rupee-Rouble payment system that will enable them to get over the sanctions the United States and the European Union have placed on Russia because of the war.

The agenda for the discussions will also include cooperation at multilateral fora, such as the UN, SCO, G-20, and Russia-India-China dialogues. Moscow has expressed appreciation for India’s steadfast refusal to oppose Russia in any of the United Nations votes on the conflict in Ukraine, and President Vladimir Putin has twice in the past few weeks praised India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their “talented” population and their “independent foreign policy.” In response to a request from Mr. Modi, Mr. Putin added that Russia had raised fertiliser supplies to India by “7.6” times.

Dr. Jaishankar is anticipated to discuss regional problems with Mr. Lavrov and express India’s worries over the ongoing war and the potential for food and fuel shortages as a result of the hostilities and Western sanctions. With reports in The New York Times and The Washington Post indicating hopes in the U.S. that Mr. Modi, who has been in contact with both leaders, could aid in bringing Moscow and Kiev closer to communication, speculation about India’s potential role in mediating between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been growing.

Our stance on the war in Ukraine is rather obvious. We have consistently emphasised the importance of returning to diplomatic relations and conversation. The minister of external affairs would undoubtedly reiterate. When asked if Dr. Jaishankar would speak with Mr. Lavrov about ending the war, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Arindam Bagchi responded, “But beyond that, I cannot tell what they would discuss or what not.”

Additionally, according to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Dr. Jaishankar will “exchange notes on the timetable of upcoming meetings” and talk about the anticipated annual summit between Mr. Modi and Mr. Putin, which is scheduled to take place in December but has not yet been given a date. Whether or whether Mr. Putin goes there, which officials said seemed less likely at the moment, will determine whether or not the presidents meet again on the margins of the G-20 in Bali on November 15–16.

In a covert reference to Western nations who are preparing the next round of economic sanctions against Russia, the Russian Foreign Ministry added, “Russia and India stand for the active formation of a more just and equal polycentric world order, and proceed from the inadmissibility of promoting the imperialist diktat on the global arena.” France intends to organise an international summit on December 13 to discuss the war, while the G-7 nations last week created a coordination mechanism for actions to support Ukraine.