Russia, Oct.16,2025:Afghanistan fighting India’s proxy war has been a dramatic narrative recently promoted by Pakistan’s defence circles. At the same time, Russian diplomats are vigorously defending Russia supplying India oil as mutually beneficial amid U.S. pressure. These competing storylines reflect broader fault lines: regional security, energy diplomacy, and influence in South Asia. This article explores both narratives in tandem, assesses their credibility, and teases out deeper geopolitical significance-
Trump’s claim vs Moscow’s response
Trump’s claim: India to stop buying Russian oil
On October 15, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him India would cease purchasing Russian oil. Trump called this “a big step” in pressuring Moscow over the Ukraine conflict.
Trump’s comment followed previous U.S. measures: in August 2025, he escalated tariffs on Indian goods, notably citing India’s Russian oil imports as part of the rationale.
But India has not officially confirmed Trump’s assertion. New Delhi has instead emphasized its energy decisions prioritize national interest and consumer stability amid volatile global markets.
Russia’s rebuttal- Oil ties remain “beneficial”
Russia swiftly countered Trump’s claim. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak affirmed that cooperation with India would continue “economically advantageous” and that India remains a friendly partner.
Likewise, Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov emphasized that Russia does not interfere in India–U.S. relations and defended Russian oil supply as extremely beneficial for India’s economy.
Thus, the competing claims set the stage: the U.S. paints India’s Russian oil purchases as a lever to influence Russia; Moscow and New Delhi portray them as pragmatic, sovereign choices.
Russia supplying India oil- Strategic motivations
From marginal supplier to dominant role
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it played a limited role in India’s oil imports. But sanctions on Russian energy created a dramatic pivot: India began buying Russian crude at steep discounts.
By 2024–2025, Russia became one of India’s top oil suppliers, with estimates putting Russian crude at 34–40 % of India’s total imports.
Importantly, India’s state refiners have recently reduced Russian intake, but private entities like Reliance and Nayara have compensated by increasing their Russian crude purchases.
Mechanisms to sustain supply
To bypass Western sanctions, Russia reportedly uses “very, very special mechanism(s)” to keep oil flowing to India, per Russian embassy officials.
Moscow also remains keen on joint energy projects with India (e.g. in the Far East, Arctic) to deepen interdependence.
Benefits and risks
- Benefits for India: Lower-cost crude—often at discounts below Brent—boosts cost savings, energy security, and keeps inflation in check.
- Benefits for Russia: Diversification away from Western markets subjected to sanctions; stable revenue from one of few willing importers.
- Risks: Diplomatic pushback (e.g. U.S. tariffs), reputational costs, exposure to secondary sanctions, dependency in volatile geopolitical times.
“Afghanistan fighting India’s proxy war” A contrasting narrative
While the focus on Russian oil dominates headlines, a separate thread persists: Afghanistan fighting India’s proxy war—a narrative advanced by Pakistan’s defence establishment.
Origin and framing
Pakistan has periodically accused Kabul of harboring groups hostile to its security interests, alleging Indian influence behind such actors. In recent border clashes and fragile ceasefire scenarios, Pakistani officials have revived this line: that Afghan forces (or militants supported by Kabul) act at India’s behest.
By invoking “Afghanistan fighting India’s proxy war,” Islamabad aims to shift blame outward, link external support to internal security threats, and galvanize domestic narratives.
How the narrative plays
- It delegitimizes Afghan claims or defense actions by labelling them as part of Indian strategic designs.
- It provides a pretext for escalated response by Pakistan while framing the situation as defensive.
- It leverages information warfare: strong language helps dominate regional discourse even in the absence of transparent proof.
Strengths vs weaknesses
- Strengths: Resonates in Pakistani media and policy circles, plays into long-standing India-Pakistan strategic rivalry, taps into regional distrust.
- Weaknesses: Hard to independently verify; international press remains cautious and relies on multiple claims without endorsing proxy narratives. Independent coverage often limits itself to reporting clashes and ceasefire statements rather than affirming clandestine backing.
Geopolitical implications of both narratives
Energy diplomacy meets strategic rivalry
The two narratives—Afghanistan fighting India’s proxy war vs Russia supplying India oil—might seem unrelated, but they converge in how states project power, deter adversaries, and negotiate alliances.
- India’s growing reliance on Russian oil gives it leverage against energy pressures but also exposes diplomatic vulnerabilities.
- Pakistan’s proxy claims highlight how security narratives are weaponized to manage internal and external threats.
U.S.–India tensions in 2025
The U.S.–India diplomatic and trade crisis of 2025 erupted largely due to U.S. pressure on Indian oil imports from Russia, including steep 50% tariffs.
India’s decision-making becomes a balancing act among: securing energy at affordable rates, maintaining strategic autonomy, and managing U.S. expectations.
Stability in South Asia
Proxy war accusations risk reigniting escalation in already volatile zones (Pakistan–Afghan border, Taliban dynamics). Combined with energy competition, the region may see sharper alignments with outside powers (China, U.S., Russia) to secure strategic depth.
Reception, pushback and international commentary
- Indian media and analysts have largely treated Trump’s claim with skepticism, noting India’s consistent position on energy sovereignty.
- Western outlets emphasize the complexity of supply chains, sanction evasion, and careful maneuvering by New Delhi.
- Russian officials use diplomatic language to assert that supply decisions are bilateral and beneficial, rejecting allegations of coercion.
- Pakistan’s narrative of Afghanistan fighting India’s proxy war is amplified domestically, with limited traction in international forums unless backed by hard intelligence.
“Afghanistan fighting India’s proxy war” remains a powerful rhetorical tool in Pakistan’s strategic narrative arsenal, though its empirical basis is contested. Meanwhile, Russia supplying India oil is a tangible, ongoing reality affirmed by trade data and diplomatic confirmation.
