New Delhi,Nov.20,2025:India Russia oil import decline is making headlines right as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares for a major diplomatic trip to New Delhi. The timing has raised eyebrows, because energy ties—especially crude oil trade—have historically formed a core pillar of India-Russia relations. But in recent months, Indian oil imports from Russia have shown signs of strain.
This shift isn’t happening in a vacuum. It comes at a moment when geopolitical pressures, U.S. sanctions, and shifting energy markets are all colliding. That makes the decline not just a commercial matter, but a deeply strategic one — with implications for energy security, bilateral diplomacy, and India’s broader foreign-policy calculus.
Trends and Contradictions
Tracking by Ship-Tracking Firms
Contrary to some narratives of a steady and sharp cut in Russian crude imports, ship-tracking data paints a more nuanced picture. According to Kpler and OilX, India’s crude imports from Russia in October 2025 were around 1.48 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 1.44 million bpd in September.
Likewise, other data sources picked up an 11% month-on-month increase in the same period.
Yet, while some outlets report a rebound in October after a summer dip, others note a longer-term decline: for instance, India’s first eight months of 2025 saw a 10% drop in total crude imports from Russia compared to prior averages.
This apparent contradiction—week-to-week uptick vs. year-on-year decline—suggests that the “decline” is not uniform, and strategic recalibration might be happening rather than a straightforward disengagement.
Impact of U.S. Tariffs and Sanctions
A key factor behind the drop: U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, with a deadline set for November 21 to wind down transactions. Several Indian refiners—including major players like Reliance, HPCL, and Mangalore Refinery—are reportedly reviewing contracts to avoid sourcing from the blacklisted companies.
On top of that, Donald Trump (former U.S. President) has repeatedly criticized India for its Russian oil purchases and even claimed that Prime Minister Modi pledged to halt imports in a phone call. While India’s foreign ministry denied knowledge of such a commitment, it underscores the political heat around this issue.
Strategic Reasons Behind the Decline
Refiners’ Recalibration
Major Indian refiners are recalibrating their sourcing strategy. According to industry reports, private refiners such as Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy continue to buy Russian crude, but are increasingly wary of entities under U.S. sanctions.
State-run players are being even more cautious. They are scrutinizing loading documents, purchase agreements, and shipping bills to ensure they don’t indirectly trade with Rosneft or Lukoil. This kind of due diligence suggests a strategy of risk mitigation rather than a blanket shutdown.
Energy Security vs. Geopolitics
India has long balanced its energy security needs with geopolitical imperatives. On one hand, discounted Russian crude has been economically attractive. On the other, geopolitical risks—from Western sanctions to diplomatic fallout—are becoming harder to ignore.
Some analysts argue that Indian refineries are now hedging: they are not completely cutting off Russian supply but reducing exposure to risky entities, while simultaneously scouting for alternate sources. This way, they can maintain affordable energy while reducing potential political fallouts.
The Effect on India-Russia Relations
The decline in oil imports could test the resilience of India-Russia ties, especially as Putin’s visit draws closer.
Historically, energy trade has cemented the partnership between the two nations. But now, the pressure to reduce oil ties could realign that relationship. Even as India seeks to reduce some engagement on oil, it may continue deep collaboration in strategic areas such as defense, space, and nuclear technology. Some experts believe that while oil was a major economic lever, it’s not the only one—and India and Russia might lean more on non-oil sectors going forward.
What This Means for India’s Future
Alternative Suppliers & Diversification
In response to the decline of Russian oil imports, Indian refiners are actively looking for alternate crude sources. According to reports:
- Middle East, Latin America, and West Africa are gaining attention as spot-market alternatives.
- Indian Oil (IOC) has even called for 24 million barrels of crude from the Americas for Q1 2026.
- Mangalore Refinery is replacing uncertain Russian volumes by importing Murban crude from Abu Dhabi.
These moves not only help manage geopolitical risk but also diversify India’s crude basket—a smart strategy for long-term energy security.
Long-Term Geopolitical Risks
Scaling down oil dependence on Russia comes with its own geopolitical trade-offs. While India may ease its exposure to sanctioned Russian entities, this could potentially strain trust with Moscow—especially in energy diplomacy.
Moreover, a shift toward other countries for crude supply invites fresh dependencies: new political risks, different market dynamics, and even supply-chain vulnerabilities. So, while diversification is sensible, it opens a new chapter in India’s energy geopolitics.
Can India Balance Its Energy Needs and Diplomacy
India Russia oil import decline is not a simple story of capitulation or defiance. It’s a subtle recalibration. Indian refiners are reducing exposure to high-risk Russian entities—not because they are cutting ties entirely, but because they are hedging bets in a volatile geopolitical climate.
On one side, the U.S. sanctions and trade pressure are real, and they are forcing Indian companies to rethink how they source crude. On the other, energy security remains non-negotiable for India. The result is a carefully orchestrated balance: maintain enough Russian supply to stay cost-efficient, while reshaping the import portfolio to reduce diplomatic risk.
As Putin’s visit approaches, this dual-track strategy will likely be tested. The broader question remains
