Pakistan, Aug.04,2025: We have just concluded a Deal … Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves
Pakistan Trump oil deal flop – overhyped from the start
Pakistan Trump oil deal flop refers to the intense public skepticism and mocking reaction following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s declaration of a deal to jointly develop Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves.” The flurry of social media memes and expert critiques highlighted how shaky the claim really was.(turn0search4, turn0news15)
Trump’s dramatic announcement
On 31 July 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social:
“We have just concluded a Deal … Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves … maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India someday!”(turn0search5, turn0search9)
He added that a U.S. company will be selected to lead the project. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif welcomed the “landmark” agreement, framing it as a national victory.(turn0search9)
Pakistan’s actual oil reserves: the stark reality
Pakistan’s proven oil reserves are in the range of 234–353.5 million barrels, placing it around 50th globally—just 0.021% of world reserves. At current consumption levels, these reserves would not even cover two years’ domestic demand.(turn0search5, turn0search6)
Production stands at only about 60,000–80,000 barrels daily, covering just 15–20% of national requirements.(turn0search6)
Public mockery and viral memes
Social media users lampooned the announcement:
- One shared an image of cooking oil and wrote: “Pakistan’s massive oil reserves.”
- Another joked that Pakistan might be talking about edible oil, not crude. These memes widely circulated across X and Reddit.([from user memetic examples in user prompt])
Harsh Goenka, a leading industrialist, quipped:
“More likely in Lagaan than reality,” dismissing the improbability of Pakistan exporting oil to India.(turn0news15)
Expert reactions debunk scare claims
Distinguished analysts slammed the over-hype:
- Michael Kugelman wrote that Pakistan has been exaggerating its oil potential.
“Trump…trying to put the cart before the horse” citing lack of infrastructure and exploration.(turn0search5)
- Narendra Taneja of Independent Energy Policy Institute told BBC Hindi: No U.S. oil company has confirmed any agreement and deals only follow viability.([from user prompt])
Mechanics of the US‑Pakistan oil agreement
According to AP News, the deal is part of a broader trade agreement that also lowers tariffs—Pakistan aims to tap into largely unexplored Balochistan, Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa oil potential.
No sites have been officially named, and the government has not yet disclosed timelines or budgets.
Broader trade context and tariffs link
Shortly after the oil deal, Trump announced 19% US tariffs on Pakistani goods, down from 29%.(turn0search2, turn0news19)
This juxtaposition of energy partnership and tariff reduction appears designed to reinforce a new trade relationship pivot beyond punitive trade policies.
Political calculus: US‑India tensions & energy diplomacy
Observers note strategic messaging:
- Trump reportedly aimed to counter India’s growing energy ties with Russia by aligning with Pakistan.(turn0news17)
- His public suggestion of Pakistan exporting oil to India was seen as a jibe at New Delhi, especially amid U.S. sanctions on Indian oil imports.(turn0search4, turn0search5)
Strategic and financial feasibility concerns
Developing Pakistan’s oil fields faces major obstacles:
- Proven reserves are minimal, and offshore & shale discoveries remain untested.(turn0search4)
- Security issues in Balochistan and lack of infrastructure deter investors.(turn0search1)
- U.S. companies require guarantees—political, legal, and infrastructural—before committing to extraction ventures.([from expert quotes])
What’s next for Pakistan’s energy future?
Pakistan will receive its first shipment of U.S. crude oil in October 2025—about one million barrels via Cnergyico and Vitol. This marks import diversification rather than domestic output growth.
If exploration yields nothing new, Pakistan will remain dependent on costly oil imports and may still face energy deficits.
