US, Aug.01,2025: We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves
Trump Pakistan Oil Reserves Deal Announced
Trump Pakistan Oil Reserves Deal kicks off a newly declared trade and energy partnership between the United States and Pakistan, announced by President Donald Trump via Truth Social on July 30–31,2025.
He wrote:
“We have just concluded a Deal with the Country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive Oil Reserves. … Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling Oil to India some day!”
Officials confirmed that the deal also includes tariff reductions on Pakistani exports to the U.S. and aims to increase bilateral trade, which reached $7.3 billion in 2024.
Why the Deal Is Viewed Positively and Negatively
Positives:
- Encourages US investment, technology, and infrastructure in Pakistani energy sector.
- Aims to diversify Pakistan’s energy sources, reduce oil import dependence (~85% imported).
- Part of broader tariff relief for Pakistan amid 25% tariffs on Indian imports, signaling favorable U.S. treatment.
- Criticism and Concerns:
- Experts warn Trump’s claim of “massive reserves” is based on speculative seismic data, not proven commercial reserves.
- The deal appears more geopolitical than resource‑grounded, aiming to push back Chinese influence and pressure India in trade talks.
- Analysts from India have described the timing and tone as strategic provocation, especially in light of U.S. tariffs and Trump’s messaging.
Where Pakistan’s Oil “Reserves” May Actually Be
Reports suggest the oil reserves lie in:
- Balochistan (insurgency‑affected but geologically promising).
- Sindh, Punjab, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with modest exploration activity to date.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA, 2015):
- 9.1 billion barrels in technically recoverable shale oil.
- 105 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of shale gas.
The US Geological Survey (USGS, 2017) offered a more conservative estimate for the Lower Indus Basin: 164 million barrels of oil and 24.6 Tcf of gas as mean technically recoverable resources.
These figures are not proven reserves—no commercial drilling or extraction has yet occurred.
What Experts Say: A Reality Check
Energy experts report:
- Despite seismic promise, no large‑scale drilling or infrastructure exists.
- Pakistan currently produces only ~88,000 barrels/day, meeting just 10–15 percent of national demand; the rest is imported.
- OGDCL’s recent wells in Sindh’s Sanghar district (Baloch‑2) yield 350 barrels/day oil and 50 MMSCFD gas—small scale but operational.
- Analysts caution that unlocking shale reserves may require $5–10 billion over 4‑5 years, along with political stability and security guarantees.
Impact on India, China & Geopolitics
- Trump’s remark that Pakistan may one day sell oil to India is widely seen as a strategic jab at New Delhi during the trade spat and tariff imposition.
- This move is also interpreted as part of a U.S. effort to counter China’s dominant investments in Pakistan’s infrastructure—namely the China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
- Experts argue U.S. entrance could complement rather than displace Chinese roles, integrating U.S. firms in engineering, construction, and new services sectors.
Pakistan’s Oil Exploration Landscape
Current oil and gas efforts are ongoing across Pakistani provinces:
- Sindh leads with several wells (e.g. Sanghar’s Baloch‑2).
- Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan have exploration blocs—many yielding limited or now-dry wells.
- Reports indicate that provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa face security, tax, and revenue-sharing challenges inhibiting further progress.
What’s Next: Investment, Infrastructure, and Risk
For the Trump Pakistan Oil Reserves Deal to materialize:
- A leading U.S. or international oil company must be selected—Trump indicated this is underway but no names or timelines are public.
- Significant capital investment is essential to build exploration rigs, pipelines, refineries (Pakistan has ~420,000 barrels/day capacity).
- Risks include local opposition (especially in Balochistan), security threats, and political instability deterring investors.
Meanwhile, U.S. plans to ship its first crude oil to Pakistan later in 2025 face a 19% tariff, potentially impacting commercial viability.
Is This a Game‑Changer
The Trump Pakistan Oil Reserves Deal has grabbed headlines, with promises of economic leverage, trade expansion, and energy collaboration.
But so far, it remains conceptual, grounded in geological possibilities rather than proven reserves or ongoing production.
If fully implemented, this could transform Pakistan’s energy outlook—and shift geopolitical alignments in South Asia. Until then, it’s a bold gesture backed by speculative potential.
