Opinion: In the Hindi Heartland, Rahul Gandhi’s Caste Census Pitch Will Be A Game Changer

We have seen as the Bharatiya Janata Party has tightened its grip on the Hindi heartland since 2014

For instance, we observe the BJP winning every single seat in the Lok Sabha in Gujarat and Rajasthan, and doing so twice in a succession.

In state elections, things are rather better for the Congress and regional parties. The consolidation of the Other Backward Classes, or OBCs, particularly the lower OBCs, is the foundation of the BJP’s power in the Hindi heartland.

It helps that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP’s well-known face, is also from a lower OBC community. The BJP has succeeded in uniting what was once a dispersed caste group along with persistent booth-level engagement of OBCs. Lower OBCs, which are frequently dispersed and small, used to be the ultimate swing demographic. As votes like Muslims, higher castes, and Dalits tend to have strong party and ideological attachments, these were the electors who would change administrations.

To break through the BJP’s dominance, the opposition, particularly the Congress, must mobilise the lower OBC vote. In close races, even a little shift in this vote can transfer seats from the BJP to the Congress.

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This is why Rahul Gandhi’s call for a caste census and increased representation of OBCs is so significant. The impact will be felt as early as December, with the outcome of assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh.

Changing Pages

Rahul Gandhi has successfully dispelled whatever uncertainty the Congress may have ever had about calling itself an OBC party. He correctly noted that three of our current Congress chief ministers are members of the OBC.

In practically every state, caste groups are demanding more representation. Agitations exist, and they can occasionally become violent. The OBC of today is knowledgeable about history and empowered by smartphones. Every state is fighting against the 50 percent cap on total reservations.

Therefore, it is critical to have up-to-date and accurate information on caste demography. In 1931, there was the final recognised caste census. Caste censuses are a concept whose time has come in 2023. Bihar just demonstrated that it is simple and feasible. Rahul Gandhi has so identified the appropriate problem at the appropriate moment.

For OBC youngsters all over India, the release of the Bihar statistics would make it clear how they may profit from the caste census. It supports their demand that the 50% ceiling be lifted.

Rahul Gandhi has criticised the BJP for just making modest efforts to advance the OBC. He has made the point that upper castes dominate the top levels of the bureaucracy and that OBC reservations for women in legislatures should be included.

We will gain clarity regarding caste demographics and economic status through a good caste census, in addition to caste demography. The Congress party and social justice might both benefit more from this.

Inspiring OBC Youth

In the 1990s, the Mandalization of Indian politics caused the Congress to suffer. Rahul Gandhi’s call for a caste census has the potential to turn the Congress’s vulnerability into a strength.

Data from caste censuses can show how well or poorly a community is doing. This will result in justifiable requests for quota increases and decreases through sub-categorization. By doing this, the Congress can firmly align itself with lower OBCs, who with Fevicol ka jod appeared to be loyal to the BJP.

The caste census pitch may increase the Congress party’s support if the Bharat Jodo Yatra strengthened its grip on its base supporters. Election politics in the Hindi heartland could become less one-sided with even a 2-3% vote shift from the BJP the Congress on this basis.

Beyond its rivalry with the BJP, Rahul Gandhi’s proposal has greater potential. Even local parties will be alarmed by the Congress’s potential influence on their supporter groups.

Rahul Gandhi is paving the road for the Congress party’s national vote share, which has been constant at 19–20% since 2014, by persistently supporting caste census and more OBC representation. young from OBC who are unemployed may see new chances open up for them through a rise in OBC representation, with unemployment being the largest problem for Indian young. This might sway young people, including first-time voters, to support the Congress. The BJP has performed exceptionally well in this sector thanks to PM Modi’s charisma.

Rahul Gandhi might have discovered his own ‘polarisation’ to take on the BJP given their uneasiness with the caste census issue.